COVID-19 FORECASTING

A SERVICE OF THE HORUS ADVISORY GROUP

Living with the Pandemic

Economy and Society

  • The CoVid-19 spread will be globally defeated by the end of 2021 at the earliest. This implies, that for the next 18-24 months, we will have to learn to „live“ with the pandemic.
  • The economic consequences will be tremenduous for all global regions.
  • However, the development, including eventual recoveries and setbacks will be different for individual countries due to:
    • Local start and severity of the spread
    • Capability of the government and society to enforce lockdown and quarantine measures
    • Financial capabilities, in order to protect the local economy and provide financial stimuli for restarting the economy

Enterprises

  • The global CoVid-19 spread leads to major uncertainties among enterprises all over the world.
  • As of now, most of the companies „drive by sight“. Any corporate planning done prior  for the years 2020 forth following, is obsolete. Also, no economical crisis during the past 90 years can be taken as a reference for the current situation.
  • Nevertheless, especially international enterprises have to establish tangible realistic assumptions for the development of their global markets.
  • The driving factor is the expected number of infections in the individual countries for the following months. It is based upon this KPI that countries will implement their measures.

Here we can support your with our individual models for various countries, which are able to forecast the development of the pandemic, until the end of the year 2020.

We started our CoVid-19 spread forecast already in January of 2020

  • In January of 2020, CoVid-19 was, for most of us, a Chinese issue, which would not harm the rest of the world. Even the WHO defined CoVid-19 only as late as March 11th of 2020, as a global pandemic
  • Our partner Prof. Dr. Hu, who has a professorship at the Universität der Bundeswehr in Munich, started analysing and modelling the CoVid-19 spread already in the beginning of January
  • He understood that the spread can be captured as a systems model, which is determined by mathematical necessities. The input variables required for the model, in order to explain the number of infections, are the individual behaviour of the respective society. These are defined by the contact frequency and the time between the infection and its diagnosis, which in turn is determined by the political determination of the government, as well as the capability and capacity of the respective health system
  • The resulting model has been continuously optimised during the last 3.5 months, along with new scientific insights regarding the spread
  • Today, we can state that the model has proven to be highly reliable. In our regular blog on this website, you can see that we anticipated most of the developments we are currently facing earlier and more precisely than any official publication
  • In the meantime, we have completed the modelling for the spread of approximately 20 countries

Our CoVid-19 spread forecast is based upon big data and state of the art System-Dynamics modelling

  • With the multivariate Monte Carlo Simulation, we were able to examine the sensitivity of the model regarding various parameters and pick out the best 54 simulation runs among thousands, from which we determined the valied values of the parameters with credible intervals: e.g. Wuhan 22.42%+- 0.33% (95% credible interval, Crl) per day.
  • With the model, we map the processes of both the infection an dits spread. In particular, the infection rate r and the time period d between the infection and the confirmation of the infection, followed by the isolation of the sick, are included as parameters in the model.
  • These two parameters are crucial in determining the spread of an epidemic because it is during this time period d, that every infected person infects r other people per day. The basic reproduction number R0=r*d can also be calculated based upon this.
  • In our model, the infection rate r is expressed as the product of the contact frequency f and the probability of the infection of a contact p. We have r=f*p. According to Prof. Dr. med. Drosten, a medical consultation with an infected patient for 15 min. increases the chance of infection by 5%
  • A central element of the model is the calculation of cases, which are already infected and not yet confirmed, from which the infection of other people and therefore the spread of the disease takes place

We offer a country specific, model based, rolling forecast with weekly updates

  • The following country forecasts are available:
    • Germany
    • Austria
    • Switzerland
    • France
    • Italy
    • United Kingdom
    • Russia
    • Iran
    • India
    • China
    • South Korea
    • Japan
    • South Africa
    • Algeria
    • USA
  • Price for the Country Basic Package: €1,150 + VAT
  • Price for the Country Enhanced Package: € 2,150 + VAT
  • Special analyses, such as  a spread analysis for selected US states or CoVid-19 analysis for specific markets and industries are available upon request

Our offer includes the CoVid-19 simulation model itself

Sample Scenarios: After the end of the lockdown...

Scenario 1:…the infection rate increases to the former level of 16%, however the time between infection and diagnosis can be reduced to 5.5 days

Scenario 2:…the rate of infection increases to the former level of 16%, time between infection and diagnosis remains at 6.5 days

Scenario 3:…infection rate increases to 18%, time between infection and diagnosis can be reduced to 5.5 days

Scenario 4:…infection rate increases to 18%, time between infection and diagnosis can be reduced to 6.5 days

  • We not only provide the study, but the model itself
  • Our customers can conduct their own simulations, in order to get a thorough understanding of the current situation and potential future scenarios
  • Especially the following variables can be manipulated:
    • Anticipated frequency of contact
    • Anticipated time between infection and diagnosis
    • Anticipated transition time between governmental regulations and their effect
  • The model also enables our customers to validate the effectiveness of governmental measures very early
  • The model files can be read and manipulated with the Vensim Reader software, which is available without an additional license fee
  • The resulting data can be exported into MS-Excel

The CoVid-19 country forecast repoort and the forecast data are part of the package

  • As part of each country package, we provide a study with:
    • A description on how the respective country performed until now in the CoVid-19 crisis
    • Respective base data on relevant factors of the health system, government and society, which are relevant for the model, its understanding and anticipation of governmental regulations
    • A description of base, best and worst case forecast scenarios for the respective country
    • XLS files with data of base case, best case and worst case
  • Clients can also export results of their own simulations in Vensim into MS-EXCEL, in order to be used for further analysis, such as creating individual graphs etc…

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