Market Analysis, Forecasting and Databased Strategy

MARKET ANALYSIS, FORECASTING AND DATABASED STRATEGY

Most companies use one of the following approaches to estimate market sizes and to make market forecasts:

(1) Traditional approach

The (local) sales department makes an estimate based upon past values and available market information. (Central) Marketing conducts its own estimates, often based upon purchased market studies. The then ultimately as valid determined market size is the result of a process of approximation between both sides.

(2) Statistical approach

Using complex multivariate regression models, partly using AI.

Usability of the data

While approach (1) uses the organisation’s industry experience, the results are often subjective and, at worst, interest-driven. Approach (2) can only be used, if sufficient historical data is available and the relationships are largely linear.

Both approaches fail,

when it comes to new markets for which there are no appropriate historical data or when exogenous shocks ( CoVid19, war in the Ukraine) disrupt normal market activity.

Examples from previous projects

Simulation of the market for high-quality steel scrap

In the course of the steel industry’s efforts to reduce CO2, new production processes that are based to a large extent on the usage of steel scrap are gaining in importance. The availability of scrap, relying on the automotive and white goods markets, as well as import and export restrictions, is therefore of the highest strategic importance. Our model enables the prediction of scrap availability being able to consider various outside influences.

Nowcasting model for the skyscraper elevator market

Based upon millions of datasets from high-rise buildings, HORUS has developed a model with which the market size for the elevator market in the top segment can be reliably calculated and predicted for several years in the future.

Analysis of the market development for trains with alternative propulsions systems (battery electric and hydrogen)

Trains using overhead power lines are unrivalled in terms of price and TOC, also having a good _CO2 balance. Therefore, alternative drives are to replace existing diesel trains being used on non-electrified lines. A model that is intended to forecast the market for alternative drive systems must therefore take into account the number and size of non-electrified gaps in the rail network and the number and age structure of the railcar fleet. Additionally, there are political framework conditions, TOC of the drive variants and structures of ownership of the train operators to consider. HORUS has summarized all of these factors in a model that is able to predict the need for railcars with alternatives drives in 6 European markets up to the year 2050.

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Market Analysis, Forecasting and Databased Strategy